Priming conditions shape breadth of neutralizing antibody responses to sarbecoviruses (preprint)

Vaccines that are broadly cross-protective against current and future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) or across the sarbecoviruses subgenus remain a priority for public health. Virus neutralization is the best available correlate of protection. We used sera from cohorts of individuals vaccinated with two or three doses of RNA (BNT162b2) or inactivated SARS-CoV-2 (Coronavac or Sinopharm) vaccines with or without a history of previous SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-1 (in 2003) infection, to define the magnitude and breath of cross-neutralization in a multiplex surrogate neutralization assay based on virus spike receptor binding domain of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC), SARS-CoV-2 related bat and pangolin viruses, SARS-CoV-1 and related bat sarbecoviruses. SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-1 infection followed by BNT162b2 vaccine, Omicron BA.2 breakthrough infection following BNT162b2 vaccine or a third dose of BNT162b2 following two doses of BNT162b2 or CoronaVac elicited the highest and broadest neutralization across VOCs. Considering breadth and magnitude of neutralization across all sarbecoviruses, those infected with SARS-CoV-1 immunized with BNT162b2 outperformed all other combinations of infection and/or vaccination. These data may inform vaccine design strategies for generating broadly neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 variants or across the sarbecovirus subgenus.

Immunogenicity, efficacy, and safety of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose fractionation: a systematic review and meta-analysis (preprint)

Background: Dose fractionation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine could effectively accelerate global vaccine coverage, while supporting evidence of efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety are unavailable, especially with emerging variants.Methods: We systematically reviewed clinical trials reported dose-finding results and estimated the dose-response relationship of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) of COVID-19 vaccines using generalized additive model. We predicted the vaccine efficacy against both ancestral and variants, using previously reported correlates of protection and cross-reactivity. We also reviewed and compared seroconversion to nAbs, T-cell responses and safety profiles between fractional and standard dose groups.Results: We found that dose fractionation of mRNA and protein subunit vaccines could induce SARS-CoV-2 specific nAbs and T-cells that confer a reasonable level of protection (i.e., vaccine efficacy > 50%) against ancestral strains and variants up to Omicron. Safety profiles of fractional doses were non-inferior to the standard dose.Conclusion: Dose fractionation of mRNA and protein subunit vaccines may be safe and effective.

Incorporating temporal distribution of population-level viral load enables real-time estimation of COVID-19 transmissibility (preprint)

Many locations around the world have used real-time estimates of the time-varying effective reproductive number (\({R}_{t}\)) of COVID-19 to provide evidence of transmission intensity to inform control strategies. Estimates of \({R}_{t}\) are typically based on statistical models applied to case counts and typically suffer lags of more than a week because of the incubation period and reporting delays. Noting that viral loads tend to decline over time since illness onset, analysis of the distribution of viral loads among confirmed cases can provide insights into epidemic trajectory. Here, we analyzed viral load data on confirmed cases during two local epidemics in Hong Kong, identifying a strong correlation between temporal changes in the distribution of viral loads (measured by cycle threshold values) and estimates of \({R}_{t}\) based on case counts. We demonstrate that cycle threshold values could be used to improve real-time \({R}_{t}\) estimation, enabling more timely tracking of epidemic dynamics.